Another Yankees 2010 Lineup Projection

The last time our old friend Matt Imbrogno did this, it was pretty popular. But since then a few things have changed with the Yankees, the biggest was the loss of outfielder Melky Cabrera.

Matt also used CHONE to run these projections. I don’t like CHONE, they routinely overrate everyone, and according to them Cody Ransom is going to hit 14 home runs and will be worth $5.1 million. Yeah, Ransom has as good a chance at winning the lottery as that happening. Instead, I’m going with the Bill James projections because they seem quite a bit more reasonable. I’ll do a couple projections for different lineups that the Yankees may use this season.

First up is the lineup that they would run out there if the season started today:

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Nick Johnson DH
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Curtis Granderson CF
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Nick Swisher RF
9. Brett Gardner LF

This lineup projects to score 6.155 runs per game or 997 runs over the course of the entire season. I’d say if they can come close to that then they are going to repeat in 2010.

Second is a lineup featuring Reed Johnson as the team’s starting left fielder:

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Nick Johnson DH
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Curtis Granderson CF
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Nick Swisher RF
9. Reed Johnson LF

This lineup only is projected to be slightly worse scoring only, ha, 6.084 runs per game or 985 runs per season. Considering they’d be better off defensively with Gardner in left field the Yankees are better off standing pat than giving Johnson a starting role. As a caddy for Curtis Granderson against tough lefties though, that would be a great role for him.

Finally, let’s take a look at the lineup if Jerry Hairston Jr. is right and they are still waiting to sign Johnny Damon:

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Johnny Damon LF
3. Mark Teixeira 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez 3B
5. Nick Johnson DH
6. Jorge Posada C
7. Robinson Cano 2B
8. Nick Swisher RF
9. Curtis Granderson CF

This lineup is projected to score 6.113 runs per game or 990 runs in a season. That still isn’t quite as high, although only barely lower, than the first lineup with Gardner as the starting left fielder. So not even taking into account that Gardner is a much better defensive option as Damon, the Yankees still project to be better without Damon.

So if you believe Bill James projections, I’m a little skeptical, and the Yankees can stay healthy then the Yankees are better off with Gardner as the starting left fielder. The lineup would be even stronger with a caddy for Gardner against tough lefties  whether that person be Reed Johnson or even Jamie Hoffmann.

These lineup projections were done using the Lineup Analysis tool and made possible by Baseball Musings.

This entry was posted in Editorial and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Another Yankees 2010 Lineup Projection

  1. Jay Hershkowitz says:

    Might be able to get some pitching questions answered on January 31st from 10-1 at the Dix Hills Jewish Center on Long Island when David Robinson appears and will do a speech and a Q & A.

  2. jon says:

    no the line up i quite obvious
    Jeter
    Johnson
    Tex
    AROD
    Posada
    cano
    grandy
    swish
    gardner