How Bad Is Jeter’s 2010?

Everyone knows by now that Derek Jeter is having the worst season of his career. His career OPS+ is 120 and this year it’s 95. Last year he had one of his best years, with an OPS+ of 132 and the best defensive season of his career (finally posting a positive UZR).  This year his defense hasn’t been the worst of his career, but he is not a good fielder.

People often talk about how Jeter is “clutch,” and while he has posted good postseason numbers in general, when was the last time he came through in a big spot at the end of the game? When the Yankees were in Detroit a few weeks back, Jeter came up with runners on base in the 9th inning, down a run, 1-out and facing Jose Valverde. Was I thinking this is the guy we want up? No. I was just hoping he struck out and didn’t hit into a double play. Of course, he hit into a double play.

I give this example because I know many people like to say that Jeter is more than his numbers – surely, everyone has heard of Jeter’s “intangibles” by now – but I think even those supposedly unquantifiable things are no longer there.

So you get it by now: I’m not a huge Jeter fan. Obviously, his consistent on-base abilities while playing shortstop make him one of the greatest ever. He’s a no-doubt Hall of Famer. But right now he’s not very good. All that said, here is something I find immensely interesting:

AL OPS+ Leaders, SS

  1. Blue Jays – Alex Gonzalez: 114 (101 for Braves)
  2. White Sox – Alexei Ramirez: 97
  3. Yankees – Derek Jeter: 95
  4. Royals – Yuniesky Betancourt: 92
  5. A’s – Cliff Pennington: 91
  6. Indians – Asdrubal Cabrera: 91
  7. Twins – JJ Hardy: 88
  8. Red Sox – Marco Scutaro: 87
  9. Rangers – Elvis Andrus: 82
  10. Tigers – Ramon Santiago: 82
  11. Angels – Erick Aybar: 80
  12. Rays – Jason Bartlett: 80
  13. Mariners – Josh Wilson: 72
  14. Orioles – Cesar Izturis: 48

So despite having his worst year ever, Jeter is still one of the best hitting shortstops in the American League, only behind Alex Gonzalez, who had a flukey home run binge with the Blue Jays before being traded, and Alexei Ramirez, who is having a decent year but has never been a consistent OBP guy. If Jeter can bounce back even a little, he could very easily once again be clearly the best hitting shortstop in the league. I guess what it comes down to is, will Jeter simply continue to decline, or will he be able to bounce back a little? I may not be a huge Jeter fan, but I still think he is capable of at least being as good as he is now for a few years. Maybe the Yankees won’t be able to bat him 1st or 2nd anymore, but there aren’t really any other options anyways.

The reason all of this becomes so interesting is because Jeter is about to be a free agent. Joe Posnanski has been writing extensively about this, including his most recent entry. I agree with most of the points he makes, except I think he is failing to notice just how bad Jeter’s competition is. I think it’s pretty obvious that Jeter will come back to NY, if for no other reason than the Yankees don’t have any other good options. Look at that list. Again – at his worst, Jeter is still a GOOD hitting shortstop.

Last night, Rob asked via Twitter what Jeter’s next contract will look like. My guess is 3 years, $60 million. I’ve read people suggest it will be over $100 million. People have also guessed as low as $30 million. The Yankees have bargaining power because no one can afford to give an aging shortstop that much money. Jeter has leverage because he’s the face of the franchise and the Yankees don’t have any other options. 3 years at $20 million a year I think is a reasonable compromise; let’s face it after all: Jeter isn’t going to make less than AJ Burnett. 3 years is also a short enough time that the Yankees can reasonably expect Jeter to still hit enough to stay near the top of the shortstop OPS+ list. They just might not be able to bat him at the top of the order anymore (I mean, they probably shouldn’t be right now), which I suppose is an issue unto itself. But that discussion will probably have to wait until Jeter’s contract is figured out.

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7 Responses to How Bad Is Jeter’s 2010?

  1. Nice article Brian. I think you hit the nail on the head. As much as people complain about Jeter, it's really about high expectations. As far as shortstops go, he's still near the top of the pack. Also, there really aren't any clear cut replacements available. The biggest problem is that he's not at the bottom of the order.

  2. NYYank55 says:

    Jeter should step up and ask Girardi to move him down in the line-up until he figures out his hitting woes. It's sad to say, but he has become an automatic out. Girardi would never embarrass Jeter by moving him himself, however if Jeter suggested it I'm sure there would be no problem. Besides, as much as I hate to admit it, Gardy's OBP cannot be ignored. Jeter cannot be allowed to continue hitting in the leadoff spot or #2 hole (where he bangs into too many DP's) any longer. At least not until he starts hitting like he can.

    • Bronx Knight says:

      I've been thinking for quite some time now that Jeter needs to be moved down in the batting order. Clearly Gardner should be leading off — his OBP is I think 40 points higher than Jeet's, and he has blazing speed. This far into the season, batting Gardner 9th is just retarded. If the idea is to create a 9-1 speed chain with Jeter, then maybe the Captain should be batting ninth.

      That being said, now that Bernie is gone, Jeet is my favorite Yankee, and I don't see how we could disrespect him by batting him ninth. Maybe 7th?

  3. Hardcore Yankee Fan says:

    I will be ecstatic if the Yanks can get away with a 3 yr $60 million deal. My worst fear is that they'll have to go 4-6 years. For that reason alone, I'm actually sort of glad that Jeter is having a subpar year as his contract expires, as long as it doesn't effect winning the division or hopefully another championship.

    If Jeter wants more money, as I've heard others suggest and pondered myself, they should give him a post retirement position for as much as even 10 years at $5M+. It's not my money but I can live with it as a Yankee fan who is constantly dwelling on the Yankees' financial well being. Contrary to what some Yankee fans, and almost all baseball fans seem to think, the Yanks don't have THAT much financial flexibility. Especially, for at least the next 3-4 years.

  4. Kevin Smith says:

    Hi,

    I think your salary projections are way out of line. Think Johnny Damon and Vladimir Guerraro. How about a two year contract for a total of $16 million? I think the Yankees know that he isn't going to get more than that from any other team- even the Mets.

    Sincerely,

    Kevin Smith

  5. Sorry Kevin, but there is no reason to think that Jeter would accept a contract at actual market value. Johnny Damon and Vlad Guerrero are not good comparisons at all as Jeter is the face of this franchise that is worth over a billion $$. That alone is worth something. The question is, how much?

  6. Hardcore Yankee Fan says:

    Kevin, I would also strongly disagree with your viewpoint. On top of what Rob said, unlike Damon or Vlad, other teams would definitely find value in more ticket sales with Jeter, especially considering he will be chasing 3,000 hits in 2011. That fact alone in hard dollars is worth millions. As for his other intangible value, most Yankee fans (including myself), want him to remain a Yankee lifer. I don't want him to play on another team. Nor does Jeter. Nor does the Yankee organization.

    For all of these reasons, and more, he will and should be compensated more than his statistical player value would indicate. Obviously there are limitations and hopefully Jeter won't be unreasonable. None of this would even be a problem if the Yanks hadn't done a REALLY stupid thing in signing ARod for what they did but that's past and they have to deal with this the best they can.