2280 G, 1680 R, 2914 H, 464 2B, 60 3B, 234 HR, 323 SB, 85 CS, .314 BA, .385 OBP, .453 SLG, .838 OPS, 119 OPS+
Player B from seasons age 22-36:
2346 G, 1554 R, 2966 H, 521 2B, 108 3B, 143 HR, 122 SB, 100 CS, .311 BA, .380 OBP, .433 SLG, .813 OPS, 126 OPS+
These two players are 66 games , 126 hits , 57 doubles , 48 triples , 101 homers , 201 stolen bases, 15 times caught stealing, .003 BA points, .005 OBP points, .020 SLG points, and 0.25 OPS points apart. Some in favor of Player A and others in Player B.
My point is that Jeter and Rose have had very similar careers so we could probably use the rest of Roses career to at least get an idea of what to expect from Jeter the rest of the way.
Here is the average season for Rose from his age 37 season through his age 39 season:
161 G, 96 R, 197 H, 44 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 15 SB, 9 CS, .305 BA, .377 OBP, .401 SLG, .779 OPS, 114 OPS+
Considering that Jeter had a better average, OBP, and SLG for his seasons from age 22-36 it is realistic to consider that Jeter could potentially put up at least similar numbers to Rose from 37-39. Which would mean that his triple slash line over the next three seasons would be somewhere around .305/.377/.401. That’s not bad and I think the Yankees would gladly sign up for.
The big fight is over the years after that though, his age 40, 41, and 42 seasons. This is when we really started to see some drop-off in Rose’s abilities. He starts his age 40 season with a .781 OPS, but the drops to .683 and then to .602. Here are his three year averages:
140 G, 68 R, 144 H, 19 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 6 SB, 6 CS, .278 BA, .349 OBP, .336 SLG, .684 OPS, 92 OPS+
I don’t think the Yankees would especially like it if this was the type of production they got out of Jeter over these three years, but it wouldn’t kill them. The thing is, Rose was much better in his age 40 season than 41 or 42. So let’s take a look at the averages from those two years:
156 G, 66 R, 146 H, 20 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, 8 SB, 8 CS, .260 BA, .332 OBP, .315 SLG, .647 OPS, 81 OPS+.
The Yankees certainly would like to avoid this out of their starting shortstop. Especially since they could get this kind of production from plenty of players that would be available on the free agent market. Then when you factor in Jeter’s likely defense at this age, he would be easily replaceable.
Essentially, if you are willing to bet that Jeter, who has put up Rose like production so far during his career, can continue that trend over the next few years – the Yankees would be smart to try to hold him to a three year deal. It probably wouldn’t kill them to go to four years though. They should at all costs try to avoid signing a five or six year deal though as those last couple of seasons they would be getting below league average production from him offensively and probably bad defense to go along with it.
So in the end, I would recommend that the Yankees try like hell to stick with signing Jeter to a three year deal. It won’t kill them to offer him a fourth year, but they should avoid it. And no five year deals. End of story.