Over/Under: How Many Will 2011 Yanks Win?

Via VegasWatch, here is a list, by division, of the initial over/unders on each team’s win total for the 2011 season. The Yankees are predicted to win 91 – certainly not a bad total, but not really up to their standards. I am an optimistic Yankee fan so clearly I would bet on the over here, though I don’t think that’s an unfounded opinion. Many Yankees had terrible years last year and they still won 95 games. This season they’re bringing back mostly the same team except with a few new pieces and minus a half a season of Andy Pettitte. I think they’ll still win at least 93.

Some other ones that stand out (by division):

AL East

I would bet the under on the Red Sox at 96 wins, though I don’t think 96 is out of the question. I do think challenging the 1998 Yankees and winning 114 is (which has already been proposed by multiple Boston-area sources). I would bet the over on the Rays and 86. That team will still be very good this year; they have the pieces to easily replace Carl Crawford and Matt Garza and their other young guys will keep getting better.

AL Central

This promises to be a pretty mediocre division and the over/unders reflect that. I’d consider betting the Indians to surprise a bit and top 71 wins.

AL West

The Angels are getting way too much credit for their recent accomplishments; I’d go the under on them. I’d go the over on the A’s – they seem like a good bet to be the Rangers primary competition.

NL East

I’d go under on the Phillies and 97. I know – their rotation, blah blah blah. At some point though, that lineup will get exposed, especially if¬† ChaseUtley has injury problems. Domonic Brown‘s ability to replace Jayson Werth will be key. I’d also go over on the Braves. They should at least be as good as they were last year (when they won 91 games) and should eclipse 88.5.

NL Central

Nothing really stands out to me here, though I’d be tempted to go over on both the Brewers and the Cubs. Brewers seem to be all-in this year and the Cubs are all-in every year.

NL West

I’d definitely go under on the Giants and 88.5. Sure, they have a good pitching staff, but their offense is a complete smoke and mirrors show after Buster Posey. I love Tim Lincecum, but his numbers since his rookie campaign have not been trending in the right direction. I like the Dodgers to win more than 82. That team has a ton of talent with Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp, etc. Maybe they won’t make the playoffs, but they should be in contention.

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4 Responses to Over/Under: How Many Will 2011 Yanks Win?

  1. The Captain says:

    Pencil me in for 93 as well, Brian. There's too much talent there for them to not win more than 91.

  2. David K. says:

    Come on, this is just shooting in the dark. It's hard to say right now. If you're optimistic about it, Yanks might win 95 or 96. All depends how much the kids will contribute. I would not count on most of the old junk they brought it making the team or contributing anything even if they do make the team.

    • Brian Burkhart says:

      Indeed it is shooting in the dark, as are all predictions. Just interesting to see what the early lines are.

      • David K. says:

        I'd say Yanks have a good team. AJ will have to pitch better than he did last year. It would help a lot if Ivan Nova learns to pitch better with guys on base and if he can get out of the fifth inning. I'd like to see them give a real chance to Jesus Montero. I think he has a much better chance to be an impact player than Martin. If everything falls apart, they won't make playoffs. If the above things go well, they could win the World Series. Combine that uncertainty with such a strong AL east this year, it is much more difficult this year to predict # of wins.