Some Quick Yankees Notes

Here is some quick stuff to mention before the Yankees start playing their first game.

Thoughts: Jeter has said in the past that he’d like to be owner, but even he knows that the Yankees are out of his price range. People seem to be jumping all over Kevin Kernan, but I’ve had similar thoughts. Although I’ve though more along the lines of a 15-year $150-$200 million contract where he would be moved into the front office after 4-5 years. Something like that, I’m not sure it’s possible though.

As far as the other stuff, like I said, it sucks to be Cervelli because those are the type of guys that $15,000 is really going to hurt. It probably doesn’t make a tiny bit of a difference to guy like Jeter, A-Rod, and Teixeira. Maybe the older guys can help the younger guys out here.

And I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of hearing about steroids, especially when the Yankees are only indirectly involved.

Some Thoughts on the Fifth Starter Competition

Benjamin Kabak‘s typically strong post at RAB on Joba Chamberlain and the to-start-or-relieve conundrum, which addresses a John Harper piece at The New York Daily News, spurred some thinking about a couple aspects of the fifth-starter race. I think Kabak did a very good job analyzing that Harper’s article didn’t prove his own point–that the Yankees are considering moving Joba to the bullpen. That isn’t to say that they aren’t, but rather that Harper’s quotes of pitching coach Dave Eiland didn’t substantiate that. This is, after all, an open competition that Joba may well win.

At the same time, there is an aspect of the upcoming competition for the fifth starter spot that has largely been unaddressed, yet to me may be crucial to how the Yankees deal with the aftermath of the fifth starter competition. It harks back to what I’ve said in the past about Joba and Phil Hughes, their youth, how the Yankees handle them, but also relates to managing. That is, the outcome of the contest between the two young pitchers will likely require as much direction and finessing for the pitcher who doesn’t begin the season starting as it will for the pitcher who does.

That I consciously avoided using the terms “winner” and “loser” thus far is pertinent, for I believe the Yankees should adopt a similar approach. The pitcher likely moved to the bullpen will need to hear from Joe Girardi, Eiland, and Brian Cashman that he still plays a vital role in the team’s fortunes and its future, at the same time that he realizes from the outcome that he needs to do more to become a full-time starter for the defending World Series champions. This two-pronged approach served the Yankees well last year, for it was similar to how they handled Melky Cabrera after he lost the competition to be the starting center fielder to Brett Gardner. This prompted Melky to redouble his efforts and, when he got the chance to play, regained the CF job for the rest of the season. Girardi handled the situation well by complimenting both players, indicating their importance to the team, and signaling that, when Gardner was initially chosen, he would not need to look over his shoulder for the situation would not be “day by day.”

I believe they need to handle the fifth starter competition as diplomatically, if not more so. Both pitchers have been labeled for some time not just starters but future stars, shouldering high expectations from the organization and fans alike. They have shown some mental toughness with their vast talent, especially when setting up. The Yankees need to ensure that whoever (presumably) moves to the bullpen is mentally ready to do important work and gets over the blow of losing the competition. They need to remember, as do fans, that the pitchers are still young–Joba turns 25 in September, Hughes 24 in June. They need time to mature and, for one of these pitchers, their maturity as a starter may be delayed for a time at the same time that their mental maturity will be tested.

In the last few days, a phrase has turned over and over in my mind–we ask a lot of athletes, often things we would not ask of ourselves. It isn’t to say that we necessarily shouldn’t, or that part of being a top-notch athlete shouldn’t involve facing challenges. I am also not saying that there isn’t some real value in this impending competition, for Joba and Hughes both see the seriousness and stakes of this and are proceeding accordingly, which is encouraging to see. However, we as fans at times demand that athletes act in a way that we would find difficult. For whoever isn’t the fifth starter, many fans will likely insist that the loser keep a stiff upper lip, shrug off the setback, and embrace a different but still crucial role on the team. For those who might downplay the significance of this, consider how we might react if we were subjected to a competition for jobs we already had or had prepared long and hard for, then lost and were in essence demoted.  If a bit older, think also about how we might have reacted if faced with such a scenario in our early to mid-20s, if we would react to the outcome as well as one of these young, highly touted athletes probably will after one of them comes up short in a very public competition for the fifth spot–and, not to be overlooked, probably being billed as the most talented young pitcher in the organization as a result.

The Yankees will need to manage the outcome of the competition as judiciously as they have the youngsters’ careers to this point.

The 2009 Bullpen in Historical and Statistical Perspective

Following up on my comparison between the terrific 2009 rotation with those of the late 1990s, this post assesses the sterling 2009 bullpen and gauges its performance along side the late 1990s dynasty. As with the rotation, the 2009 bullpen compares rather favorably with most years, including the tremendous 1998 team. As with last week’s post, I maintained a similar criteria with a couple important addenda: saves, which to a degree are overrated (see Joe Borowski’s and Todd Jones’s respective numbers for further elucidation, two players for whom sabermetricians ought to invent a category I’ve dubbed the NBS, the Nearly-Blown Save); and batting average against (BAA). The latter especially complements the seminal WHIP statistic to illustrate bullpen effectiveness in keeping batters faced off the bases, for relievers, unlike starters, frequently start stints with inherited runners. They’re not just trying to get batters out but often to stanch rallies.

Year W-L & Rank (by %) ERA & Rank IP & Rank K/9 & Rank WHIP & Rank Saves & Rank BAA & Rank
2009 40-17 (2) 3.91 (4) 515 (2) 8.4 (2) 1.250 (1) 51 (T-2) .231 (1)
1996 25-21 (5) 4.10 (5) 518 1/3 (1) 8.8 (1) 1.385 (5) 52 (1) .251 (4)
1997 24-24 (6) 3.22 (1) 450 1/3 (4) 7.8 (3) 1.339 (4) 51 (T-2) .243 (2)
1998 28-9 (1) 3.76 (2) 395 1/3 (6) 5.9 (6) 1.293 (2) 48 (5) .252 (5)
1999 27-14 (3) 3.77 (3) 437 (5) 6.9 (5) 1.309 (3) 50 (4) .247 (3)
2000 22-16 (4) 4.52 (6) 459 2/3 (3) 7.0 (4) 1.447 (6) 40 (6) .257 (6)

Why 2009’s bullpen is the best of the bunch: Based on the above criteria, the 2009 Yankees stand out as the strongest, most consistent bullpen. They did the best job keeping batters off the bases (WHIP and BAA), had strong strikeout ability, played a bigger role in the decisions than their predecessors with 40 wins, and had a good ERA (fifth-best in the AL) despite logging 515 innings—far more than any of the rest except the 1996 championship team. In sum, they delivered great results despite the fact that more was asked of them than most other teams. Stocked with the steadily great Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.76 ERA, 66 1/3 IP, 0.905 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 44 saves), the 2009 Yankees also sported a top-notch set-up man in Phil Hughes who, after starting 7 games, shifted to the bullpen and blew batters away at a rate reminiscent of Joba Chamberlain in 2007 (12.8 K/9). Realizing a precipitous jump in his fastball’s velocity into the 95-96 range, Hughes fanned batters at a rate of 11.4 K/9 with a WHIP of 0.857 in 51 1/3 IP as a reliever, proving unhittable for long stretches (31 hits allowed).  Particularly tough on righties (.184 BAA/.235 OBP), Hughes at times struggled against lefties, allowing a considerably higher batting (.257) and OBP (.348). He was hard hit in the playoffs as well. But overall, he made Yankees fans quickly forget injured and often inconsistent set-up man Brian Bruney with his outstanding work.

In addition to the dynamic duo of Mariano and Hughes, the Yankees had a deep bullpen last season. Phil Coke was traded to Detroit in the three-way deal that brought Curtis Granderson to The Bronx, and had his struggles down the stretch, limping into post-season baseball with a 4-3 record but an inflated 4.50 ERA with 10 homers allowed, tied for the most among Yankee relievers. Yet it is important to remember that, for several months, Coke was not just the only viable lefty bullpen option, but a very good one at that. With Damaso Marte shelved with a sore shoulder, Coke was very good through June and July before struggling through a brutal August (2-0, 11.17 ERA, 1.655 WHIP, .308 BAA), the one reliable lefty reliever for most of the year. Marte will need to fill Coke’s shoes to round out the 2010 bullpen. Coke was aggressive, challenging batters on both sides of the plate by using both sides of the plate to keep them off the bases.

As I discussed in his 2010 preview, Alfredo Aceves was tremendous, going 10-1 with a good 3.54 ERA and an outstanding 1.012 WHIP. Crucially, Ace was excellent against both lefties (.212) and righties (.228), and his capacity to work multiple innings was reminiscent of Ramiro Mendoza. David Robertson also provided solid relief (2-1, 3.30 ERA, 1.351 WHIP), and his sneaky-fast fastball and sick yakker allowed him to fan a phenomenal 63 in just 43 2/3 IP (13.0 K/9). Robertson was never more clutch than his amazing escape act in the top of the 11th of Game 2 of the ALDS. After allowing a single to Cuddyer to load the bases with no outs, Robertson set down Young, Gomez, and Harris to keep the game tied at three, before Mark Teixeira crushed a laser to left for the game-winner homer to lead off the bottom of the 11th.  He has lots of promise, and should see considerable action setting up for Mariano.

It is important to remember the particular conditions under which the ’09 pen labored—an entirely ineffective and eventually injured Chien-Ming Wang, two young starters in Chamberlain and Hughes, and at times brief stints from fill-ins Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin—all of whom combined to leave the back end of the rotation in a state of flux for most of the season. The result, from ineffectiveness, injury, and innings caps, was a much heavier workload than one would wish. Yet they thrived under such conditions—for the second year in a row, for the ’08 bullpen was also a strength of the underachieving ’08 Yanks (logging an astronomical 543 1/3 IP, second in the AL, sporting an AL-best 8.7 K/9, a 3.79 ERA, the third-best BAA at .235 and WHIP at 1.270). That certainly carried over to last season, albeit with some players in more prominent roles, especially Hughes, Robertson, and Coke.

Why 1997 ranks second: Anchored by Mariano (6-4, 1.88 ERA, 43 saves, 1.186 WHIP)—as the Yankees’ bullpens have been since 1996—the ’97 Yankees also had the ever-flexible Mendoza (8-6, 4.24 ERA, 1.384 WHIP in 133 2/3 IP starting and relieving), and a tough slew of set-up men in sidewinder Jeff Nelson (3-7, 2.86 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 77 games), and the lefty tandem of Mike Stanton (6-1, 2.56 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 64 games) and Graeme (“The Albatross,” courtesy of my boy Frank the Sage) Lloyd (1-1, 3.31 ERA, 1.531 WHIP). Although they sported the worst winning percentage of the lot (.500), they had the best ERA (3.22), the second-best BAA (.243), and the third-best K/9 ratio (7.8). They were a tough, well-rounded group that didn’t yield much to opponents.

Commonalities of Greatness

Mariano: It is simply impossible to over-estimate how central Mariano has been to the Yankees’ success by anchoring the bullpen; all else flows from him. Good set-up work means all the more for the Yankees, for Mariano is as close to a sure thing among closers as there has ever been, or will be. He has for the most part remained healthy, and has been consistently great year in and year out—actually lowering his career ERA and WHIP with great and efficient work in the last decade. Thus, the essential ingredient of the bullpen for the Yankees hasn’t changed one whit for 15 seasons now. That’s an incredible privilege.

The K: Unlike with my comparative assessment of the rotations, in which I somewhat diverged from Tom Verducci’s emphasis on the K from alpha starters, the ability of relievers to fan batters in late innings has been fundamental to the Yankees’ success—and I wholeheartedly approve. While regular reader smurfy made a very good comment on the prior (starters) post about ground balls and double-plays over the K with which I agreed, there is a particular value to having good-morning, good-afternoon, and good-night hardball throwers out of the pen, especially since they often enter and must escape jams. The K is a great solution, the ultimate equalizer for relievers. Many of these championship teams, and the best bullpens from those years, could do just that and at a prodigious rate.

Preventing Overwork: This is important for particular players but also for the unit. Joe Girardi has proven far more adept at apportioning relief work than his eventual Hall-of-Fame predecessor, Joe Torre. Girardi has illustrated his gift for detailed preparation for games and players by employing a system with Dave Eiland in which each reliever’s work is charted on index cards, preventing pitchers from being worked into the ground.  This also has its roots in Girardi displaying trust in more and younger relievers than Torre did, with the beneficial result of cultivating and utilizing the considerable depth the Yankees have stockpiled in recent years.

Depth and Flexibility: Related to this approach and the organization’s wealth of pitching talent, this has rendered parts of middle relief interchangeable, with middle relievers who did not perform, such as Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Jonathan Albaladejo shifted out in favor of Hughes, Robertson, and Coke last year. Despite his renowned reticence about young relievers, Torre too sported and used his depth, with Nelson, Mendoza, Stanton, and for a couple years Lloyd proving very reliable as well as durable. The ability to shorten games has been a Yankees formula for success in no small part because of Torre and how he used his bullpen talent.

They also had players who could work multiple innings (Aceves more recently, Mendoza during the dynasty), and at least one effective lefty who wasn’t just a LOOGY (Coke in ’09, Stanton and Lloyd in the late 1990s).

For 2010, the Yankees’ bullpen would be well served by having its innings cut considerably from the last two years which, combined, saw them log 1,058 1/3 IP. That’s a lot, has ranked the Yanks second and fifth in 2008 and 2009, respectively, and is pushing the envelope of the unit regardless of Girardi’s workload management and overall trust. It would also stay strong should Marte fill Coke’s shoes, especially with a comparable WHIP to Coke’s stellar 1.067—an illustration of the importance of WHIP, which helps explain his effectiveness despite a somewhat high 4.50 ERA. Robertson’s continued development into a strong set-up man with strikeout ability would also put the Yanks in good stead, as would Mark Melancon doing in ’10 what Robertson did in ’09—add depth in middle relief and fan batters with a good fastball and curve. Whoever is not the fifth starter between Hughes and Joba, presumably the primary set-up man for Mariano, needs to keep up the good, aggressive work. With these developments, good health, and of course the greatest of all time lurking and waiting for his Metallica serenade, the Yankees should continue to sport one of the best bullpens in the majors.

2010 Player Previews: Mariano Rivera

2009: The greatest closer of all time and, in my opinion, the greatest relief pitcher ever, Mariano Rivera was again reliably outstanding in helping the Yankees clinch their 27th World Series title. Sporting an ERA below 2 for the sixth time in the last seven years, and for the ninth time in his incredible career, Mariano dominated opponents despite throwing a cutter that topped out at just 90-92 for most of the season. Yet even for the great Mariano, whose career has been punctuated by stellar statistical, personal, and team achievements, 2009 was something to behold. Not only did Mariano again maintain a sub-2.00 ERA (1.76), he kept runners off the bases with a gaudy WHIP of 0.905–the eighth time in his 15 major-league seasons his WHIP has been 1.000 or under. This was primarily because Mariano walked a mere 12 batters in 66 1/3 IP, the seventh time in the last eight seasons in which Mariano has walked a dozen or fewer. With pinpoint control yet somewhat reduced velocity, Mariano nonetheless maintained a K/9 ratio of 9.8 for the second straight season.

Furthermore, in 2009 Mariano allowed runs in only 8 of his 66 appearances, punctuated by an amazing stretch when, for 21 straight appearances from June 16 to August 9, he didn’t allow a run in 21 1/3 IP, forfeiting just 10 hits and 4 walks. In that stretch, he also notched his 500th career save June 28 against the Mets–while recording his first career RBI by working a bases-loaded walk against crosstown nemesis K-Rod in a 4-2 victory. Just the second reliever to amass 500 or more saves, Mariano finished the regular season with 526 and capped his great season with more brilliant post-season pitching that has become his trademark–ending 9 games, saving 5, and allowing but a run in 16 playoff innings (0.56 ERA) to lower his all-time best post-season ERA to 0.74 as the Yankees won #27. Crucially and not surprisingly, he was the only closer among the eight playoff teams not to blow a game.  All this despite a strained rib cage in the World Series; all this at the age of 39.

There is Mariano, and there is everyone else. When it comes to shutting down games, he simply has no peer.

  • 2009 Statistics: 3-3 record, 1.76 ERA, 44 saves, 66 1/3 IP, 48 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 72 K, 0.905 WHIP, 10th All-Star appearance, Rolaids Relief Man Award winner, DHL Delivery Man of the Year Award winner.

2010: My good friend and big Yankees fan Frank the Sage says it best: “Only when I hear that he entered the manager’s office holding his right arm in his left hand and threw it down on the desk will I believe Mariano Rivera can’t get guys out.” Amen. Expect more greatness, even at the age of 40. I foresee Mariano having another terrific season, tallying another sub-2.00 ERA year in which he shows excellent control, and putting up excellent overall numbers. Many have awaited a drop-off from Mariano, and it simply hasn’t happened. Heck, his one down year as a closer, 2007 (3-4, 3.15 ERA, 39 saves, 9.3 K/9, 1.121 WHIP), was for most mortals awfully good. I need to see it before I believe Mariano drops off and, frankly, I don’t see it.

  • 2010 Prediction: 4-3 record, 1.81 ERA, 42 saves, 69 2/3 IP, 75 K, 51 H, 13 BB, 0.928 WHIP.

Assessing the 2009 Yankees Rotation in Historical, Championship Perspective

Peter Menking has done a terrific job breaking down the current rotation, including today’s post on Joba Chamberlain, to provide readers with a good glimpse into what they may expect from a strong 2010 rotation. In turn, I figured a look back at last year’s championship staff would allow a worthwhile comparison between last season and the impending one, as well as a comparative glance back to the great Yankees dynasty of the late 1990s. In the process, this approach illustrates not only that last year’s pitching was excellent and a crucial element on the road to the World Series, but also that the 2009 staff, most of whom returns in bolstered form for 2010, compares rather favorably in many ways to the great late ‘90s teams.

Some notes on methodology: I utilized a rubric from a post last year at The Heartland, modified from Tom Verducci and Joe Torre’s The Yankee Years. In it (p. 460) Verducci charts pitchers’ W-L, ERA, innings pitched, and K/9 ratio for the Yankee starters from 2001-2007 to contend that as the decade wound on, the Yankees lacked dominant “alpha” starters with strikeout ability, costing them particularly in the playoffs.  I used this then, with some alterations, to compare the 2001-2007 non-championship years to the late 1990s dynasty to illustrate the excellence, reliability, and strikeout-ability especially among alpha starters during the dynasty, and express hope that last year’s team would replicate the dynasty rather than the pretenders of the interregnum, which they sure did. I added two important subcategories—replacement player statistics and WHIP.

Parsing primary from replacement starters provides a more nuanced comparison that confirms but also partially refutes Verducci’s primary premise—that rotations with “alpha” strikeout starters and multiple aces propel teams on championship runs. WHIP and replacement starter categories assess the vital area of rotation depth and to what degree it has determined success, and their overall quality and efficiency with WHIP—to me a seminal statistic.

I categorized as primary starters those who began the season barring injury, being the presumed or career starters, and returning from injury (e.g., David Cone in 1996). Importantly, I broke down last year’s primary starters to both include and exclude Chien-Ming Wang, for his statistics were so anomalous with the rest of his career and, frankly, with what any serviceable starter would provide. This revealed further just how good last year’s staff was despite Wang’s immense struggles, as I will discuss later.

Below are the charts. The first is last year’s primary starters (P), with the number of starts in parentheses. The second chart contains the 2009 replacement pitchers (R), and again the starts following parenthetically. The third compares last year’s primary and replacement statistics with their predecessors from 1996-2000, with the ranks in bold; primary first, then replacement, with primary ranked against primary and replacement against replacement. For the replacement starters, I inverted the rankings for IP from the primary to the replacement starters; that is, for primary starters, pitching more innings ranked that year’s staff higher. For replacement starters, pitching more innings that season ranked them lower. This was to treat as more valuable, comparatively, those staffs that logged more innings, and to devalue those that, for injury or inefficiency, did not and thrust more of the workload onto replacements.

2009 Primary (P) W-L ERA IP K/9 WHIP
Sabathia (#34) 19-8 3.37 230 7.7 1.148
Burnett (#33) 13-9 4.04 207 8.5 1.401
Pettite (#32) 14-8 4.16 194 2/3 6.8 1.382
Chamberlain (#31) 9-6 4.78 156 1/3 7.6 1.554
Wang (#9) 1-6 11.38 34 5.8 2.176
TOTAL w/Wang (#139) 56-37 4.33 822 7.6 1.387
TOTAL (without Wang) (#130) 55-31 4.02 788 7.7 1.353
2009 Replacement W-L ERA IP K/9 WHIP
Hughes (#7) 3-2 5.45 34 2/3 8.9 1.500
Aceves (#1) 0-0 8.10 3 1/3 5.4 1.500
Mitre (#9) 3-3 7.16 44 5.5 1.750
Gaudin (#6) 1-0 3.19 31 6.7 1.387
TOTAL (#23) 7-5 5.58 113 6.6 1.566
Season & # Starts W-L, % & Rank ERA & Rank IP & Rank K/9 & Rank WHIP & Rank
1996 P (#134) 62-36 .633 (4) 4.38 (5) 809 (5) 6.3 (6) 1.397 (5)
1996 R (#28) 5-13 .278 (6) 9.11 (6) 112 2/3 (2) 5.4 (4) 2.050 (6)
1997 P (#137) 61-34 .642 (2) 3.91 (2) 879 1/3 (3) 6.9 (4) 1.339 (2)
1997 R (#25) 11-8 .579 (4) 5.48 (4) 138 (6) 6.9 (1) 1.558 (4)
1998 P (#142) 79-35 .693 (1) 3.72 (1) 947 1/3 (1) 7.3 (2) 1.230 (1)
1998 R (#20) 7-4 .636 (1) 4.98 (2) 114 (4) 4.0 (6) 1.333 (1)
1999 P (#152) 68-46 .596 (5) 4.31 (4) 945 (2) 7.0 (3) 1.394 (4)
1999 R (#10) 3-4 .429 (5) 4.93 (1) 57 2/3 (1) 6.1 (3) 1.526 (3)
2000 P (#137) 55-51 .519 (6) 4.80 (6) 849 (4) 6.7 (5) 1.409 (6)
2000 R (#24) 10-7 .588 (2) 5.37 (3) 115 2/3 (5) 4.1 (5) 1.504 (2)
2009 P (w/out Wang) (#130; w/Wang in italics, 139)

55-31 .640 (3)

56-37 .602 (4)

4.02 (3)

4.33 (4)

788 (6)

822 (5)

7.7 (1)

7.6 (1)

1.353 (3)

1.387 (3)

2009 R (#23) 7-5 .583 (3) 5.58 (5) 113 (3) 6.6 (2) 1.566 (5)

Why 1998 tops all: The best and deepest staff of these championship teams, 1998 leads more categories than any other. Cone (20-7, 3.55 ERA, 207 2/3 IP), Andy Pettite (16-11, 4.30 ERA, 213 1/3 IP), and David Wells (18-4, 3.49 ERA, 214 1/3 IP) started at least 30 games and threw over 200 innings, while El Duque Hernandez’s ascendancy to alpha (12-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.170 WHIP, the great Game 4 ALCS gem in Cleveland) moved Ramiro Mendoza (10-2 overall/6-1, 3.87, 1.155 WHIP as starter) back to the bullpen, where he spent much of his career (and is why, despite starting the season in the rotation, is slotted as “replacement” here statistically). Loaded with pitching studs, they also had the best run differential (1.91/game) since the equally great 1939 Yankees (a whopping 2.72/game), and an AL-leading ERA+ of 116.

Despite not being a championship team, 1997 exhibited great pitching numbers, had many of the same pitchers from before and after (Pettite, Cone, Wells, Kenny Rogers, Doc Gooden, Mendoza who started 15 of those 25 replacement starts, and Irabu), with Pettite (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 240 1/3 IP) and Cone (12-6, 2.82 ERA, 195 IP, 10.2 K/9) anchoring the staff.

Last year’s rotation ranks very closely behind 1997, to me.  C.C. Sabathia was a genuine ace, going at least 7 innings in 13 of the first 14 starts after the All-Star break to become a flat-out horse, flirting with no-no’s twice against Boston, and dominating in a great playoff run. A.J. Burnett was inconsistent but at times dominant, at his best in that great, 2-0, 15-inning classic August 7 Bronx duel versus Josh Beckett, and Game 2 of the Series. Lefty gained momentum in the second half and clinched all three post-season series with wins at age 37. Joba became shakier as his work became irregular, but had flashes of brilliance, built up innings, took the ball regularly, and has a strong shot to start in 2010. Even with Wang’s historically abysmal starts, the rotation was still very good. Four starters made 30+ starts, something only the ’99 Yanks did, and the ’09 Yanks’ staff was overall superior to 1999’s.

Had Wang thrown just 160 innings—slightly more than Joba did under limitations last season—the ’09 Yankees’ primary starters would have logged more innings than any 1996-2000 rotation. Joba may have been inconsistent, but he, C.C., A.J., and Pettite threw more innings (788) than the top four starters in any rotation from 1996-2000 except 1998 (806 1/3)–with Joba’s work limited. That’s impressive and attests to their excellence and, just as important, durability. Among last year’s replacements, Chad Gaudin was fairly good, Phil Hughes decent before shining in set-up duty, and Sergio Mitre often painful but no more so than Hideki Irabu in ‘97 (5-3, 7.01 ERA, 1.672 WHIP in 43 2/3 IP).

Common characteristics of these terrific teams:

Durability: Most if not all teams had several starters log 28-34 starts and a few from 180-220 innings, if not more. Even the ’96 team had a strong and mostly consistent rotation, with Cone making only 11 starts after a career-threatening aneurysm. Torre had to cobble together starts with young, inexperienced replacements in David Weathers (0-2, 14.81 ERA), Scott Kameniecki (1-2, 13.50 ERA), Mendoza (3-5, 7.35 ERA), off-setting an otherwise strong primary starter performance that year. Overall, they reduced the need to rely on replacements who, other than a maturing, unusually flexible and dependable Mendoza, were usually filler. Great and good pitchers took the ball every fifth day and, more often than not, were healthy.

Out Efficiency: Here is where I differ somewhat from Verducci’s emphasis on the “alpha” strikeout ability. Yes, it mattered much on last year’s team, from the primary to the secondary starters to, as I will show in my next post, the superb bullpen—more than any team from 1996-2000. Yes it helped especially against the Angels and Phillies. Yet Verducci’s focus on 2001-2007 elides the fact that, except for 1998, the late 1990s teams relied far less on the K than the 2001 (7.79 K/9) and 2002 (7.32 K/9) teams. The 1998 team’s primary starters had a strong K/9 at 7.3, but it was also efficiency that won for them and other teams. The 1998 team had the lowest BAA in the AL (.247) yet was 10th in GIDP induced (118). Not just the K’s, but the combination of strikeout ability and reducing hits and walks, is what matters. In this, Verducci overlooks how plenty of pitchers during these years—Wells in 1998 (6.8 K/9, 1.045 WHIP), Irabu in 1998 (Yes, even Irabu—6.5 K/9, 1.287 WHIP yet didn’t throw a post-season pitch), Pettite in 1997 (6.2 K/9, 1.240 WHIP), El Duque in 2000 (6.5 K/9, 1.211 WHIP)—were good (Irabu) or alpha starters (the others) without just being strikeout artists. Their K/9 ratios hovered near the 6.55 of the 2004 staff that had a 4.82 ERA, and the 6.91 K/9 that the 2003 starters had—that middle stretch when Verducci says the Yanks needed strikeout pitchers. The championship staffs got batters out every which way, not just with the K.

Depth, But Not Overexposed: The horses took the ball, with the late 1990s teams exceedingly reliant on Mendoza for spot starts without relying much on other young, usually inferior pitchers. Last year, the Yanks needed Mitre for just 9 starts, not the 15 that Sidney Ponson threw in 2008 (4-4, 5.85 ERA, 1.638 WHIP), or the 20 from Darrell Rasner in ’08 (5-10, 5.40 ERA, 1.535 ERA), or a not-ready-for-prime time Ian Kennedy for 9 (0-4, 8.17 ERA, 1.916 WHIP). The more inferior (for youth, inexperience, or narrow margin for error) pitching gets seen, the greater the chances it gets hit. Rasner’s first six starts of ’08 were good, most of the rest were subpar to poor, and he wasn’t accustomed to that much work at that level. Last year, the Yanks’ four best made 80% of their starts, paralleling the results especially from 1997-1999—and the championships of the latter two.

One championship does not a dynasty make. Yet with C.C., A.J., and Pettite returning, Vazquez the #4, and Joba or Hughes the fifth starter, the Yankees have more than enough talent to contend for a second straight title after an outstanding 2009 run. C.C. has historically been durable (223 innings over his career, 162-game average). To me, A.J. is the linchpin. The last two seasons are the only two back-to-back 200-inning seasons of his career. When he pitches, he is usually very good, sometimes dominant. Can he stay healthy, reduce the walks and homers, and improve upon last year’s 13-9, 4.04? Can Pettite, turning 38 in June, continue to defy age? Given their stacked offense (915 runs in ’09), if the rotation stays healthy and makes outs efficiently—if they provide the continuity and perennial excellence that the late 1990s pitchers did—the 2010 Yankees have an excellent chance to repeat.

Reflection After a Week

A week ago tonight, the Yankees beat the Phillies 7-3 to win their 27th World Series Championship and their first since beating the Mets four games to one back in 2000. For fans of most teams, a nine year gap between championships would not be seen as too big a deal. But, as a Yankee fan who came of age around the turn of the century, I’ve been quite spoiled and nine years did seem like a long time.

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Back in October 2000, when the Yankees beat the Mets, I was only an eighth grader. I knew I liked baseball and I knew I liked the Yankees; I had since my first trip to the Stadium in 1995 when the Yankees played the Toronto Blue Jays. At the time, I was not yet eight years old. The next year, Derek Jeter came into the league and that’s when my true love for the Yankees began. From 1996-2000, all I knew was Yankee championships. Obviously, as a young boy, I did not follow the Yankees as much as I do now. I probably went to one or two games a year, with family and friends, and I can’t recall watching many games on television–save for the playoffs.

Despite those early years of my Yankee fan-hood being doused in championship champagne, I find myself realizing that they didn’t mean a whole lot to me. I remember being happy that my team won the World Series, but I never quite felt the connection to the team that I feel now.

My high school years, 2001-2005, represent a mixed bag of Yankee success–all those years yielded division titles, but no World Series wins (two losses), and a crushing defeat in the 2004 ALCS. I followed the team a little more closely, watched more games, and got more into things. Even then, I wasn’t as into the game as I could be.

Perhaps the turning point of my Yankee-life was in September of 2005. That was my first semester at college, Hofstra University, and my roommate Jon was also a Yankee fan. In late 2005 and in spring of 2006, he and I watched just about every inning of every Yankee game. That’s when my love for this team really took off. Since that time, I’ve followed probably 95% of all Yankee games in some way–attendance at the Stadiums, watching on TV, listening on the radio, following online, etc.

When I transferred to the University of Connecticut in fall 2006, I was at a bit of a loss for the Yankees. UConn’s cable package didn’t carry the YES Network, so I was stuck watching on either MLB.TV or Gameday. Still, I kept up with the team every single day and night. 2006’s and 2007’s playoff exits were just as hard for me to take as 2004’s because I followed the team that much more closely and felt a stronger bond with it.

2008 brought something I’d never felt before as a Yankee fan: an October with no playoffs. What the hell? While I still watched the playoffs, it felt so strange. At the end of the proverbial day, though, it was a good thing. Not only did it possibly wake the front office up, but it also gave us Yankee fans a shaking up that we needed. We needed to stop taking things for granted. Hopefully, we have.

Finally, this brings me to 2009. This was just an incredible season all around. Not only did I follow the team more closely than I ever have, but it was also the first season during which I was writing for the entire time. Breaking from the article, I once again want to thank Rob for picking me up to write for this site. Being able to write about the team I love aids my following of it more than I could ever imagine. Writing about the Yankees every week has given me great perspective on this team and I think Rob for giving me that opportunity.

At the beginning of the season, I think we all felt that this team could be something special. It has been truly great to root for this team in 2009. They were a near perfect combination of talent, teamwork, and effort. They gave us something to look forward to every night. We may have gotten frustrated with them at times during the season, but at the end of it all, they came no where near disappointing us. This team was a championship team in every sense of the word. Thank you, 2009 New York Yankees. Thank you for making 2009 the greatest baseball year of my 22 on this planet. It will truly be a hard year to top.

Video of the Yankees 2009 World Series Victory Parade

Here is a decent video I found on YouTube of today’s World Series victory parade down the Canyon of Heroes in lower Manhattan.

Video of Jay-Z Performing During Yankees Victory Parade

Yankees Parade Route

New York City will hold a ticker-tape parade for the Yankees that will start on Friday November 5 at 11:00 A.M. from Bowling Green and it will go north up the Broadway, or the Canyon of Heroes, where it will end at City Hall Park where members of the team will give a speech.

The best way to get to the parade is by train as quite a few of the roads will be shutdown. The 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, J, M, Z, A, C, and R, W trains will all take you close enough to walk there. Make sure to get there early because if you wait until the last minute you will be watching the parade from a block away.

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End of a Journey

Make no mistake: Yankee fans have it pretty good.  The Yankees routinely field one of the best teams in baseball.  They have the financial means to go after free agents, invest in the draft, and hire the best scouts.  They have mystique that goes along with all the championships they have won (and we can make fun of announcers saying the Yankees win with “mystique” all we want, but the pinstripes themselves do help recruit talent).

2009-300x207When I say that last night felt like the successful culmination of a journey that was both memorable and perilous, that should probably make some roll their eyes.  It had only been since 2000 when the Yankees last won the World Series and they have had plenty of great moments and triumphs since then.  Fans in Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and many other cities have little sympathy, I’m sure.  But it’s always more painful to lose when you’re so close to winning.  Ever since the ball got a little too slick thanks to an unexpected shower in the Arizona desert back in 2001, and Rivera threw away a double play ball, the Yankees have been very close to winning it all.  Every team the Yankees have fielded since then had a legitimate shot at the World Series.  I think you could very easily argue that the Yankees had the best team in the league 2002-2004 and in 2006.

I’ve learned a lot about baseball since 2000.  Back then, I just expected the Yankees to win in the postseason because that’s what the best team did.  Little did I know I was actually watching probably the weakest Yankee team I’ve ever actively followed (which would date back to 1994) just happen to get hot at the right time.  Turns out it’s tough to be the best team in the regular season and then win the World Series.  The 1998 Yankees made it look so easy.

There’s no doubt the 2009 Yankees are a special team for just that reason.  They were the best team during the regular season.  They kept it going in the postseason.  Their games were always exciting.  They bounced back – whether from a bad inning or a bad loss.  None of that changed this postseason.  They followed every loss with a win and rallied back in every game they were down – even if a few of those rallies fell short.  With the possible exception of Game 1 of the World Series, every game kept me on the edge of my seat right until the last out.  Baseball is entertainment, and what greater entertainment could I ask for?

If you look through my posts from this season, both here and at my old site, I certainly did my fair share of complaining while watching a 103 win team win a championship.  But one thing that I’ve always felt has been unfair about how Yankee fans treat their teams is that we often don’t remember a lot of the great moments we’ve had in those “dark years” of playoff misfortune.  I still remember in early 2002 reminiscing about the Yankees crazy back-to-back 9th inning comebacks and the response I received from a highly critical Yankee-hater was: “Well, none of that matters because they lost the World Series.”

But that’s absolutely incorrect.  It all matters.  Jason Giambi’s walkoff grand slam in 2002.  Aaron Boone’s homerun.  Jeter’s diving catch in the stands.  A-Rod carrying the Yankees past the Twins in 2004.  Rivera flying back from personal tragedy with his family to save Game 1 of the 2004 ALCS.  The rally to catch the Red Sox in 2005.  The 5-game Fenway sweep of 2006.  Watching Joba burst onto the scene and strikeout the heart of the Tiger’s order in 2007.

I could go on all day.  The point is though, that baseball really is a journey and despite the Yankees mantra, it’s not always just about winning the World Series.  I follow the Yankees all through the offseason.  I follow their spring training games.  I follow all 162 regular season games.  Any one single game has the power to make me giddy or depressed.  To paraphrase the common retort I’ve heard, most often from my girlfriend: “Aren’t there 161 other games?”

That’s true of course, but with baseball you have to experience the moment to appreciate the journey – and last night’s World Series victory was a moment that helps justify and explain all the other ones.

This World Series title is also gratifying because it feels like the fitting cap on what has been an emotional but ultimately enjoyable decade of Yankee baseball.  The breaks haven’t always gone their way, but the Yankees have never lacked intrigue, and this season was the most entertaining yet.  So congratulations to the Yankees and to all of my fellow fans.  It’s been fun – and 2010 and the quest for 28 is right around the corner.