Showalter’s Revenge

Under Buck Showalter the Orioles have become a different team and it showed this afternoon as the O’s beat the Yankees 4-3. A.J. Burnett wasn’t horrible, but wasn’t good enough as he allowed four runs over seven innings for the loss.

Here are some quick highlights:

  • The Yankees had a guy with a .331 OBP leading off and a guy with a .395 OBP batting 9th, Derek Jeter and Brett Gardner respectively.
  • Alex Rodriguez homered and drove in a pair of runs. That gives him 100 for the season, his 14th season with at least 100 RBI’s and 13th in a row.
  • A-Rod is 3-for-6 with a homer and 3 RBI’s since returning from the DL.
  • Nick Swisher started and went 0-for-3 with a walk.
  • Colin Curtis was activated before the game. He pinch hit and struck out looking to end the game (the pitch was in the opposite batter’s box).
  • Brian Matusz held the Yankees to just 3 runs on 5 hits.
  • The Orioles’ bullpen held the Yankees hitless over 3 innings.

Forget Derek Jeter, The 2010 Yankees Have A Bigger Issue

Before I go any further in this post, let me inform you that this is not a reactionary post to yesterday’s loss.  This is presenting something that is most likely well known by Yankee fans.  Something that has been a big problem of late.

We have been hearing lately about Derek Jeter and how he not the same player anymore.  Perhaps this is true, but let us step back and think for a minute.  This is one bad season.  Yes, he is getting older, but it may not be fair to overreact and christen his career “done” or it will “never be the same.”  If this happens again next season, then there is a stronger argument against Jeter.

But, this post is not about Jeter.  It is about something that the Yankees have lacked of late.  Efficient starting pitching.

Outside of CC Sabathia (19-5, 3.02), the rotation is one giant question mark.  Phil Hughes (16-7, 4.29), who emerged as a top of the rotation starter earlier this season, has just not been the same of late.  Before the All Star break, Phil was 11-2 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.85 WHIP.  Since the midsummer classic, he has been 5-5 with a 5.47 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.  Lately, his location has been horrendous, and John Flaherty a few days ago mentioned that his arm slot has dropped, perhaps as a result of fatigue.  He has never thrown this many innings in his career, and perhaps skipping a start would pay dividends for Hughes.  Some may suggest that his struggles began when the Yankees skipped that start in June, but this is September.  They will need Hughes come October, and a tired arm cannot be an excuse for losing a potential big playoff game.

Hughes is not the only culprit.  A.J. Burnett (10-12, 5.15) and Javier Vazquez (10-9, 5.01) have only fueled the fire, which could also make it difficult for the Yankees to skip Hughes.  Burnett was 0-4 in the month of August, posting a 7.80 ERA.  Difficult to believe, but AJ has had a worse month this season, going 0-5 with an 11.35 ERA in the month of June.  His stuff is there, but his command has not been consistently, resulting in those two horrific months.  He is coming off of an eight strikeout outing against Oakland, so he must build on that and have a September like his April and July.

With Vazquez, his velocity and command is gone, which has resulted in batting practice.  His fastball sits in the mid to upper 80′s touching the low 90′s at times.  Hitters are just teeing off against Vazquez, hitting the ball long and hard.  He has given up 29 home runs this season, making him third in the league in HR’s allowed behind Rodrigo Lopez of Arizona (33) and James Shields of Tampa Bay (30).  He also gave up the only top deck home run in the new Yankee Stadium to Russell Branyan of Seattle.  It was often thought that the top deck was unreachable in the new building.

Ivan Nova (1-0, 2.89) has stepped up and filled in nicely.  He has impressed many with his composure and mound presence, even though his last start wasn’t his best work.

The Yankees do have hope on the way: Andy Pettitte (11-2, 2.89).  He is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Monday followed by a rehab start in either Scranton-Wilkes/Barre or Trenton.  The Yankees rotation has missed Pettitte’s consistency and his “Pettitte-ness” on the mound.

Even through the starting woes, the Yankees have the best record in baseball at 86-51, 2.5 games ahead of second place Tampa Bay and 10 games ahead of third place Boston.  But, it is no secret that the Yankees September schedule is difficult, perhaps the most difficult September schedule in Major League Baseball.  They will be facing teams such as Texas, Tampa Bay, Boston, and Toronto, teams that can and will eat alive bad starting pitching.

They desperately need both Hughes and Burnett to step up, because this October, they will need four starters.  With their offense, and the emergence of the bullpen, they should have no trouble defending their title if their starting pitching can get straightened out.  Until then, it remains a huge question mark, making the month of September that much bigger of a month for the team.

Day Game Dominance

The Yankees, winners of five straight, are about to embark on a rarity in baseball scheduling: five consecutive day games.  Luckily for the Yankees, they have thrived this season in day games, going 31-16.

The teams collectively hits better during the day, with a team batting average of .283 in day games compared to a .262 clip at night.

Here are some individual player statistics of those who fare better during the day than at night:

  • The red hot Mark Teixeira loves the day this season.  He is batting at a higher average of .326 during the day, compared to .228 at night.  His on base percentage during the day is .415, 72 points higher than his .343 at night.  He is also slugging .646 in day games, while only slugging .431 at night.
  • The struggling Derek Jeter has significantly better numbers in day games this year, batting .326 compared to his .233 at night.
  • Todays starting pitcher CC Sabathia (18-5, 3.14), who is currently 10-0 at Yankee Stadium this season, boasts a 2.93 ERA during the day, and hitters are only batting .203 against him in day games.
  • The ever inconsistent AJ Burnett (10-12, 5.15), whose scheduled turn in the rotation would occur Monday, September 6th in game two against Baltimore, has pitched incredibly better during the day this season.  Compared to his 5.91 ERA at night, he has a 3.02 ERA during the day.  That is difficult to imagine considering the struggles he has gone through all season long.  Also, he holds opponents to a .236 average in day games, compared to .298 at night.
  • Phil Hughes (16-6, 4.10), scheduled to start on September 5th against Toronto, has fared slightly better during the day than at night.  His ERA during the day is 3.91, a little better than his 4.19 during the day, while also going 6-1 this season during the day (10-5 at night).
  • Jorge Posada bats .316 during the day, while slugging .617, with an OBP of .397 during the day compared to .222, .378, and .348 respectively at night.
  • Brett Gardner’s daytime batting average is .304, while his nighttime batting average is sitting at .275.  His OBP is better during the day at .418 compared to .372 at night.

As the Yankees look to extend their five game winning streak, the daytime isn’t a bad time to do so.  Look for the above players to have an impact, considering their success in day games.

Good Enough

A.J. Burnett wasn’t out of this world last night, but he was good enough to win as he tossed six innings with eight strikeouts and allowed just three runs. The bullpen handled the rest as the Yankees beat the Oakland Athletics 4-3 for their fifth consecutive win.

Yankees: Worst Rotation, Best Bullpen Last 30 Days

Early in the season the Yankees were carried by their strong rotation and were constantly hurt by their poor bullpen. Lately it has been the exact opposite though.

At one point CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes were among the league leaders in wins. Even A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez had stretches where they were among the best pitchers on the team. Lately though only CC has been coming through for the Yankees as Pettitte has landed on the DL, Hughes goes up and down, and AJ and Javy have just been awful.

Looking back at the month of August Sabathia leads the way with a 3.12 ERA and a 5-1 record. Ivan Nova has been hot lately putting up a 2.45 ERA in a pair of starts. Hughes is right down the middle with a 4.33 ERA and a 3-2 record. Dustin Moseley has done an adequite job of filling in, but at 3-2 and 5.28 the Yankees would absolutely love to have Pettitte back.

Vazquez and Burnett? They’ve been about as bad as starters can get. Over the last month Vazquez is 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and has been removed from the rotation, at least temporarily. Burnett has actually been worse at 0-4 and 7.80. The only thing saving him is his potential.

Overall the Yankees rotation is good for a 12-11 record and a 5.12 ERA, good for last in the AL. The rotation is in stark contrast to the bullpen which has been the best in the AL with a 2.06 ERA.

How has the bullpen done it? They’ve gotten contributions from everyone including Sergio Mitre, 2.93 ERA, and Chad Gaudin, 3.60 ERA.

The biggest single factor probably has been the addition of Kerry Wood. Wood has pitched in 11 games and has allowed only a single run, good for a 0.71 ERA. It isn’t just the fact that he pitches well on the mound though, he takes a lot of pressure off of the other relievers and allows manager Joe Girardi to lean on them less often.

Just look at David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain since Wood joined the team. Robertson has been amazing, although his last couple of outings have raised his ERA from spectacular to just good, 2.70. Joba Chamberlain has probably been the most effected though, putting up a 2.25 ERA over the last month.

Not to be overlooked is Boone Logan. Logan has been simply outstanding since his latest call-up and over the last month has pitched in more games than anybody in the pen and has managed a 0.00 ERA. You read that right, Logan has been putting up zeros for a straight month.

It’s a good thing the bullpen has managed to turn things around and with the way the rotation has been going it is just in the nick of time. The pitches staff’s overall ERA is 4.09, good for 8th in the AL. If the pen hadn’t managed to pull that ERA down one could only imagine that the Yankees wouldn’t be in first place right now.

Pettitte is due back in about two weeks. At that time things might turn around for the rotation, especially if Nova can continue to pitch well and remain in the rotation. Then in two weeks Moseley’s numbers can be replaced by Andy’s and Burnett would be moved to the 5th spot in the rotation. At that point his clunkers wouldn’t hurt the team as much as they are now as the de facto no. 3.

Yankees Notes: A-Rod, Burnett, Berkman, and Matchups

The Yankees are back in the Bronx for a 10-game homestand starting with a four-game set against the Oakland Athletics today.

Here are some notes:

  • Alex Rodriguez will begin taking batting practice today and unless there are any setbacks he’ll be returning to the lineup as soon as he is eligible on September 5th.
  • A.J. Burnett will not be skipped in the rotation and will pitch on schedule Wednesday.
  • Lance Berkman, injured ankle, will begin a 2-game rehab assignment with the Double-A team tonight. No setbacks are expected, really the only reason he went on the DL was so the Yankees roster wasn’t short handed for a week.
  • Here are the pitching matchups:
    • Monday: RHP Trevor Cahill (14-5, 2.43) vs. Dustin Moseley (4-2, 4.53).
    • Tuesday: RHP Vin Mazzaro (6-6, 3.61) vs. RHP Phil Hughes (15-6, 4.12).
    • Wednesday: LHP Brett Anderson (3-5, 3.32) vs. RHP A.J. Burnett (9-12, 5.17).
    • Thursday: LHP Dallas Braden (9-9, 3.28) vs. LHP CC Sabathia (18-5, 3.14).

The Yankees have their work cutout for them the rest of the season. There are 32 games left and only 10 of those games are against teams under-.500. Those games: this week against Oakland and six against Baltimore. The Orioles have been playing much better of late and have been above .500 since hiring Buck Showalter. The good news is that if the Yankees can manage to go .500 the rest of the season, the Red Sox would have to go 22-9 just to tie. That’s still doable for Boston, but it is a tall order. The Yankees and Red Sox have six games left head-to-head.

Getting Burnett on Track

Everyone knows by now that A.J. Burnett is pitching terribly, leading to speculation that he, like Javier Vazquez, will be skipped in the rotation. Perhaps this will be the case, but it doesn’t seem like the solution for the Yankees or Burnett.

First off, would skipping a turn actually benefit Burnett? Obviously I am not a pitching coach, but it doesn’t seem like AJ’s velocity has been down (like the case was with Javy) or he’s been overtired. If some extra rest is really what he needs, then it’s a no-brainer: skip him once and see what happens.

Otherwise though, the Yankees have too much invested in Burnett to let him sit in the bullpen. Unlike Vazquez, Burnett is under contract for 3 more seasons. Also, the playoffs are a little over a month away, and it’s hard to imagine the Yankees going deep into them without him.  Presumably Burnett will still be taking up a roster spot no matter what, so isn’t the best solution just to run him out there and have a shorter leash with him and bring in Sergio Mitre as soon as it’s clear Burnett doesn’t have it?

We all know by now that AJ is the type of pitcher who can be dominant and tends to go in streaks. However, if he’s not allowed to pitch, there is no chance he’ll ever straighten things out. Being in a pennant race complicates matters, but it’s not like there is some can’t-miss pitcher waiting the wings. They had one young arm who was ready, and that’s Ivan Nova and he’s already up. Putting Vazquez back in the rotation in favor of Burnett just makes the Yankee rotation start to look like a game of musical chairs – whoever is the last one to have a bad start gets skipped.

Also, Phil Hughes will be having his workload cut down in September and really it’s his innings that Nova should be replacing, not Vazquez or Burnett.

On a slightly related note, all of this really makes me wonder what the long-term plan is for Joba Chamberlain. The Yankees went to great lengths last year to stretch him out as a starter, presumably so he could be a starter again in 2011 or 2012. With Kerry Wood, Boone Logan, and David Robertson throwing important innings out of the bullpen, the Yankees could have stretched Joba out a bit and let him take a couple starts down the stretch. At this point, there are likely way too many moving parts to try and make Joba a starter again this season, but I am still surprised that throughout the year he has made so few appearances of longer than 1 inning.  I have to wonder if the Yankees could go back and do it again, if they would have kept Joba as a starter, even if that meant him starting the season in the minors.

Getting back to the current rotation though, there are no options in the minors or on the waiver-wire that are going to necessarily be more effective than AJ Burnett. The Yankees still have over a month to get him on track and that needs to be their focus.

Yankees Notes: Burnett, Pettitte, Aceves, Berkman, and Nova

A.J. Burnett allowed four runs in the first inning and never settled in as he gave up eight earned runs and the Yankees lost 9-4 in the first game of a three game series against the Chicago White Sox.

Here are some notes:

So, Burnett sucks. Everyone has been talking about it. When he’s good, he has control of his fastball, gets ahead in counts, and uses his curveball to put batters away. When he is bad, he has poor control of his fastball, falls behind in counts, and then his curveball is much less effective because batters are smart enough to lay off it when the count is in their favor. When he’s bad, he’s not just bad, he’s terrible because he is so desperate to get ahead in the count that he lays pitches in there and they catch too much of the plate and are entirely too hittable. That’s the story.

The big problem is that the Yankees need him. People have been talking about Pettitte all week and how important it is for him to be healthy and pitch for the Yankees in the playoffs. Well, Burnett is probably equally important and if he doesn’t have control of his fastball in the playoffs he’s going to put the Yankees in a big hole come October.

What can they do about him? Not much that they haven’t already been doing. At the very least I’d like to see him skip a start and work with pitching coach Dave Eiland for a week straight to try to smooth out his mechanics. That should at least give him the best opportunity to be successful during the stretch and into the playoffs.

Yankees Notes: A-Rod Injured, McAllister Traded, Nova to be Called Up

The Yankees offense had been hot coming out of Detroit, but they were stopped last night by King Felix Hernandez who struck out 11 batters as they lost 6-0.

Here are some notes:

Obviously the biggest news here is that McAllister was dealt to Cleveland. McAllister was once considered a top prospect in the Yankees organization, but the Yankees seem to have soured on him after a poor season in Triple-A this year (8-10, 5.09). This is a case where he might end up being a decent back-of-the-rotation type, but the Yankees don’t need that. They have Nova who they think more highly of now and Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, and Manny Banuelos behind him who they also like more. McAllister is worth more to the Yankees as trade fodder than as an actually player.

Yankees Notes: Berkman, Pettitte, Aceves, Marte, Vazquez

A.J. Burnett gave up a first inning run, struggled but got through the second, and then didn’t need a bullpen as he dominated the rest of the way. Still, it wasn’t enough as the Yankees were 2-hit by the 1st overall pick from the 2002 draft, Bryan Bullington and they lost 1-0.

Here are some notes:

  • Burnett is now 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA in his last 8 starts.
  • Lance Berkman is day-to-day after rolling his right ankle during the 5th inning while trying to stretch a single into a double.
  • Andy Pettitte continued his rehab yesterday, he’s expected to play catch today and could play in a simulated game on Friday.
  • Alfredo Aceves is expected to get one more rehab appearance tomorrow with Double-A Trenton. It’s likely off to the Bronx after that.
  • Damaso Marte has finally begun to throw again yesterday. He’s not expected back until at least September though.
  • Javier Vazquez, who has been dealing with a dead-arm, is starting tonight. The Yankees said that they haven’t considered skipping him, but have lessened his workload in between starts.
  • The Yankees also announced that they agreed to terms with 10th round draft pick Ben Gamel.

The Yankees bullpen has been really good lately and it will automatically get even better when Aceves returns. My best guess is that it will be the end for Chad Gaudin when he gets called up. Dustin Moseley will probably stick around until Pettitte gets back.