Via FanGraphs:

Jackson’s profile does suggest that he should have an above average BABIP. He has a line drive rate of 25.8% and a ground ball rate above 50%, and both serve his speed quite well. As such, an above average BABIP should be expected.

But there are limits. First of all, Jackson’s high line drive rate is second in the league and ripe for some amount of regression to the mean. Second of all, Jackson’s BABIP on ground balls in particular is .333, and bound to come down. Jackson’s excellent 10.1% infield hit rate is about 4% above the league average, meaning that he accrues an extra 5.5 hits among his 148 ground balls, which only accounts for about 30 points of BABIP on grounders – that .333 GB BABIP is over 100 points above the league average rate, and can’t simply be explained by speed.

His BABIP on fly balls is also above the league average, by just under 70 points, and I don’t think the abnormality on fly ball BABIP can be explained as simply as his speed. Simply put, Jackson’s BABIP is going to come down.

Former Yankee Austin Jackson has put together a decent rookie season for himself and it has some Yankee fans in fits. Overall he’s hitting .304 with a .352 OBP, a .757 OPS and a 103 OPS+. Nothing spectacular, but for a 23-year-old rookie it is a promising start.

There is one problem, he leads all of baseball with a .422 BABIP and as FanGraphs points out it is just not sustainable. The comparison that I liked was with Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki, as both Ichiro and AJax are fast outfielders with little to no power. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .357, it’s impressive and if Jackson could manage that throughout his career it would be a major feat.

That’s still 65 points lower than what he’s putting together this season. In other words, he’s getting incredibly lucky. So in the future we can expect some serious regression. That means that Jackson’s .304 batting average is in serious jeopardy of declining next season and if Jackson can’t hit for a high average he can’t do much else offensively.

He has almost no power at all, putting up a low .406 slugging percentage even with the speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Considering he and Curtis Granderson have comparable speed and outfield defense, fans should probably give the trade that shipped AJax off more time before judging it. Because when all is said and done, the Yankees might have shipped off a 4th outfield type for Granderson which wouldn’t be too bad even at Granderson’s current production.

I was checking some new pictures of former Yankees. They look pretty weird so I thought I’d pass them along. Apparently the Yankees were keeping a lot of players from growing facial hair, especially Jason Giambi.

We’ve got Johnny Damon in a Detroit Tigers uniform:

(photo by: AP Photo).

Austin Jackson in a Detroit Tigers uniform (I like Granderson, but it is a real shame we didn’t see AJax more in the Pinstripes):

(photo by: Getty).

Ian Kennedy as a Arizona Diamondback:

(Photo by: Getty).

Phil Coke in a Tigers uniform:

(Photo by: Getty).

Hideki Matsui in an Angels uniform:

(Photo by: Getty).

Melky Cabrera in a Atlanta Braves uniform:

(Photo by: Getty).

Chien-Ming Wang as a Washington National:

(Photo by: Reuters).

Jose Molina in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform:

(Photo by: Reuters).

Jerry Hairston Jr in San Diego Padres gear:

(Photo by: AP Photo).

Bonus – Jason Giambi in a Colorado Rockies uniform:

(Photo by: Getty).

Bonus – Alphonso Soriano in a Cubs uniform:

(Photo by: Getty).

Welcome to the first edition of the Bronx Baseball Daily version of Minor League Monday. For those of you who are unfamiliar with my old blog, “Pinstriped Scranton”, Minor League Monday will highlight the minor league news of the week. Aside from minor league news, it will also highlight top players during the season and transactions for the past week.

Since this is the first edition at BBD, we’ll start light with a few stories you may or may not have missed.. Next week will follow a more traditional schedule, looking at the last week in particular. We’ll also drill into a deeper look at some prospects and what they offer the Yankees organization. Here are a few interesting stories from the past week and a half that you’ll be interested in hearing about.

“People there would talk about me like I was going to be (Mickey) Mantle”

It’s been plenty of weeks since Austin Jackson officially left the Yankees organization in lieu of a trip to Detroit where Jackson finds himself with an opportunity to start at the Major League level. In the Bronx, Jackson’s chance was coming soon, but it was unlikely to start opening day 2010.

Austin Jackson recently spoke with the Windsor Star about his time in New York.

Considered the top outfield prospect with the Bronx Bombers, Jackson seems unfazed by the Granderson aura.

“I keep hearing I’ve got big shoes to fill,” Jackson said. “But I’m used to that with the Yankees.

“People there would talk about me like I was going to be (Mickey) Mantle.”

Source: Windsor Star

Based on the comments from the Jackson interview, it’s clear he was well aware of the expectations that lie ahead in New York. Is Jackson going to be a player of that caliber? It’s hard to put anyone into that category, but Jackson certainly had the tools.

As was made clear, however, a prospect is exactly that. Unproven. There’s no guarantee Austin Jackson will be anything.  Will you miss Jackson? Do you think the trade was a mistake?

January Transactions (via Baseball America)

New York Yankees Signings

3B Fu-Lin Kuo
RHP Zach Segovia
LHP Royce Ring
OF David Winfree

Before signing Fu-Lin Kuo, the last player to sign with the Yankees from Taiwan: Chien-Ming Wang.

Baseball America describes Winfree as a right-handed power hitter. The Yankees have a fair share of outfielders on their 40-man roster now, but no one in particular near the level of the previously mentioned Austin Jackson. That’s not expected, but it’s worth noting.

The Yankees also recently added Greg Golson. In a recent post at the LoHud Blog , Yankees Vice President of Baseball Operations Mark Newman talked with Chad Jennings about the latest addition.

“Big run and throw tools. Who knows? We’re going to work at it. When we traded Austin Jackson, we lost our plus run tool at Triple-A.

Prior to coming to New York, Golson was rated the “Best Athlete”, “Fastest Baserunner” and “Best Outfield Arm” in the Rangers organization. Not too shabby. But will he find time in the Bronx this season? It’s possible, but with the addition of Winn, the Yankees outfield regime appears to be complete.

Manager of the Decade: Dave Miley

If you’ve ever met Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees manager Dave Miley,  you know he’s a pretty straight forward guy. If he’s got an answer for you, he’ll answer it. Having talked to Dave Miley on a daily basis during my time with Pinstripes Plus, I saw that first hand.

There’s something else I had the chance to witness: Winning.

The facts speak for themselves. Dave Miley has been a winner. Not just any winner, though, the winningest manager in the International League this past decade.  In the past three seasons in Scranton, he’s compiled a record of  253-175 and has led the Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees to three straight division titles and one Governors’ Cup.

Overall, in the past decade he’s compiled a record of 618-493.  To see the year by year record and read the full article, click here

Next Week: Tune in for another “Down on the Farm” segment where I’ll go into a deeper look at some of the prospects mentioned here and as well as a hand few not mentioned.  As always we’ll look at the transactions of the week and take a deeper look at the Yankees new outfield depth.

This off-season has been a busy one for the World Champion New York Yankees. A big part of that off-season has been some major changes to the Yankees minor league system. Some Yankee fans have expressed concerned this off-season that the Yankees have now run out of options.

After all, the Yankees have seen departures from Yankee prospects Shelley Duncan, Arodys Vizcaino, Michael Dunn, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy.

The names standing out come in Austin Jackson, the highly touted outfielder, and Arodys Vizcaino who left New York in a trade which the Yankees received former Javier Vazquez.

So who’s left? Anyone to get excited about? Let’s take a look at a few players you may or may not have heard of.

(Note: The following is NOT a top 10 list. As opposed to throwing the top 10 Yankees in the Yankees minor league system at you, I will be discussing some Yankees prospects from around the minors over the course of the next few weeks. This is the first in that series)

Jesus Montero – Catcher

Montero was essentially on a no-trade list for Brian Cashman. The Yankees landed Montero in 2006 when he was one of the top international free agents at 16 years old. Baseball America has Montero listed as Best Hitter for Average and Best Power Hitter in the Yankees minor leagues. After batting .337 in 09’ and 326 in 08’, he’s proven he’s offensively ready for a big league promotion. While his size and defensive ability have been question, he still has a strong arm and still could be a catcher of the future for the Bronx Bombers. With 1st base occupied, it’s the best option and most likely, the only option.

Slade Heathcott – Outfield

I know…he just got drafted. The facts remain; he’s got all the abilities to become a five-tool player. He’s got power. He’s got speed. He’s got a strong arm. He’s not going to break into the majors in 2010, but he’s someone worth watching.

Zach McAllister – Pitcher

McAllister was in Double-A last season and posted a 2.23 era. He’s shown the ability to provide innings for his team and has done a decent job at getting ground ball outs. His command is strong and he should see time in Triple-A this season. He isn’t currently on the 40-man roster, but if he can increase his strikeouts, stands a good chance to be there sooner than later.

Ivan Nova – Pitcher

Nova also pitched in Double-A last season. At 6-4, 210 pounds, he’s armed with good command of his pitches and throws three plus pitches (fastball, change-up, curveball). It’s fair to call his curveball a work in progress. His hits per inning ratio could use some work as he suffers from a lack of deceptive arm motion. He also possesses a spot on the Yankees 40-man roster, so you could very well see him in 2010.

Reegie Corona –Infield

Reegie isn’t a guy who I expect will come up to New York and wow anyone this season. He does, however, provide a valuable ability to play multiple positions, steal a few bases and has a pretty good eye at the plate. The most homeruns he’s ever hit in a season is three, so don’t expect him to pop too many out of the park. His OPS has continued to rise and Corona has provided more extra base hits, but it’s unlikely you’ll see him hit more than 10-15 homeruns anytime soon.

—

Of course, these are just five players who may or may not make an impact in pinstripes. As with all prospects, it’s possible none of these players will pan out. All of them could end up as trade bait down the road for all we know.

Tune in next week as I’ll highlight another five players next week in the return of “Minor League Monday”, my old column from “Pinstriped Scranton”.

As you’ve probably heard by now the Yankees have traded Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Coke for Curtis Granderson. Whether or not this is a good deal we can not say for sure until the three prospects the Yankees dealt reach, or fail to reach, their potential. That hasn’t stopped everyone from having an opinion good or bad.

Personally I have mixed emotions on the deal. Part of me is excited that the Yankees have their first legit center fielder, so what if he’s going to have to occasionally be benched against tough lefties, since Bernie Williams. Sure he has shortcomings, but to me Jackson’s potential is Granderson, I don’t care about Kennedy, and I don’t really like Coke.

There is another part of me that loves watching prospects. It was only recently that I thought he would be watching Austin Jackson for the next 15  years, followed Kennedy since the minute he was drafted, and had a great time watching Coke as he went from a long shot lefty starter to an important piece of the 2009 pen.

That’s just how I feel. Vote in our poll on the left sidebar or explain your thoughts in our comments section.

First is the reported three team trade being discussed by the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and our Yankees. The basics of the deal include the Yankees losing Ian Kennedy, Mike Dunn, Phil Coke, and Austin Jackson. The Yankees would get centerfielder Curtis Granderson from the Tigers and two prospects from the Diamondbacks. The D-Backs would get Edwin Jackson while sending Max Scherzer and others to the Tigers.

My thoughts on the deal are as follows: if those prospects from the Diamondbacks are good, you do the trade. If not, pull back and work on a deal with the Tigers. I’m not a huge Curtis Granderson fan because of his recent regression and struggles against left-handed pitching, but for the right price, he’s a good guy to have. He’s still relatively young and his contract is also pretty team friendly. He could, like Nick Swisher be a big bounce back candidate. His position is also something to take into consideration. He can patrol CF well and would be a good option for the next few years, considering his age.

However, if the prospects for the Diamondbacks are not very good, then the Yankees should pass on this trade. They’re giving up an awful lot and getting just Granderson back is not enough. The prospects, preferably one pitcher and one hitter, would have to be at least close to ML ready for this deal to make sense. Obviously, we’ll monitor the situation as it goes. What do you guys think?

Second, Mike Axisa at River Ave. Blues ran down some of the candidates the Yankees could take in the Rule V Draft. It’s a good write up so make sure you take a look.

Finally, via MLBTR, the Angels have apparently expressed interest in DH and “OF” Hideki Matsui. Obviously, this strengthens Matsui’s position in negotiations as he has at least one alternative to the Yankees. If I had to guess, I’d say Matsui will end up back in the Bronx next season, though he could be a good fit for the Angels who are losing Vladimir Guerrero. The Angels would be better served going after a real outfielder so they could shift Bobby Abreu and his 2009 -12.1 UZR/150 mark out of right field.

According to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Yankees spent a good amount of time yesterday discussing a three team deal that net them outfielder Curtis Granderson, but would force them to give up outfielder Austin Jackson, right-handed pitcher Ian Kennedy, and lefties Phil Coke and Michael Dunn.

The other two teams in the deal would be Detroit, obviously, and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Tigers would be getting righty Max Scherzer from Arizona, Jackson, Dunn, and Coke from the Yankees. Also, the Diamondbacks would be getting Kennedy from the Yanks and Edwin Jackson from the Tigers. There would also be some undisclosed prospects changing hands with as many as two Arizona prospects coming to the Bronx.

When the day ended talks were said to be at an impasse with little possibility of them resuming. It seems like the Diamondbacks are the only ones who were really interested in making that deal (no shit, they are barely giving up anyone). Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported that the Tigers were never really satisfied with the trade talks and Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman said the Yankees are also wary of giving up so many prospects.

Despite the fact that talks were supposed to be dead last night, the three teams are back at it today according to Morosi. But he added two hours later that chances of a deal are, “not good.”

Most recently Buster Olney of ESPN was giving an on-air update on Sportscenter (sorry, no link) and said that while talks are still on-going they remain doubtful, but said that they are working on different ways to get a deal done. He mentioned that it could be that Edwin Jackson could also be going to the Yankees.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that his priorities were, “pitching, pitching, and pitching.” So it seems odd that he would be involved in a deal that be sending away three pitchers (all of whom were expected to be a part of the 2010 Yankees’ bullpen) just a day after trading another bullpen piece in Brian Bruney.

If the deal changes where they are the ones who end up with Edwin Jackson that does change things as it leaves either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes to pitch out of the pen.

So the Yankees finished up their pre-Winter Meetings meeting yesterday and afterwards they announced that not only were they going to trim payroll, but they were going to bid on Roy Halladay according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated. I don’t know how they’re going to do that either.

Heyman also reminds us that in exchange for Halladay the Blue Jays are going to expect one of either Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, or Austin Jackson as part of the deal. The thing is if they are forced to deal one of those players it’s going to be very hard to stay under budget.

Who would you give up for Roy Halladay? Vote on our poll on the left sidebar.

Last offseason was exciting, the Yankees wanted CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, they identified it, and we watched. Then before you knew it they had Mark Teixeira as well.

This offseason has been different. There has been no clear cut guy the Yankees are targeting. A few guys like John Lackey, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Cameron have had their names floated around, but nothing serious has ever been mentioned and offers are not expected anytime soon.

Two big names that have been linked to the Yankees are Roy Halladay and Curtis Granderson, but it’s different than it was last year with Sabathia. Last season, I wanted to see them get Sabathia and that was the bottom line. Spend the money and bring the Big Man in to win a World Series.

With these guys it has been different. Of course I would love Halladay on the mound and Granderson roaming center or even left field for that matter. But with these two they come at a price that is worse than money, prospects. Prospects are interesting things too because you are essentially gambling with these guys. They’re valuable because team’s can’t just go out and get new ones (unless you go to the Dominican Republic) and you never really know how these guys are going to pan out.

So what you do is you keep a good eye on these guys, try to find out which ones are the real valuable players and you try to keep those. The rest you want to deal. The problem is the ones you want to keep are precisely the ones teams ask for.

In this case the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to acquire at least one of the Yankees best four players under 25, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and Austin Jackson according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.

The Tigers are supposed to be, “asking for multiple major-league-ready players to move Granderson.” If that’s the case then expect them to be asking about one of the same four players the Blue Jays are looking for. Maybe the Yankees could get them interested in Ian Kennedy or Zach McAllister, but in reality, if they’re looking for a major league ready player and dealing Granderson then Austin Jackson is where this thing is going to lead to.

The Yankees have added seven players to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 draft and have removed Shelley Duncan from the roster.

RHP Hector Noesi
RHP Ivan Nova
RHP Romulo Sanchez
INF Reegie Corona
INF Eduardo Nunez
INF Kevin Russo
OF Austin Jackson

The Yankees put out a press release earlier in the day:

The New York Yankees announced today they have added right-handed pitchers Hector Noesi, Ivan Nova and Romulo Sanchez, infielders Reegie Corona, Eduardo Nunez and Kevin Russo and outfielder Austin Jackson and to the 40-man roster.

Noesi, 22, appeared in 26 combined games (20 starts) with Single-A Charleston and Single-A Tampa in 2009, going 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 117.0 IP. He also combined to hold opponents to a .220 batting average (96-for-436) with only 15 walks and was named a midseason All-Star with Charleston. Noesi was originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on December 3, 2004, out of the Dominican Republic.

Nova, 22, made 24 combined starts with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2009, going 6-8 with a 3.68 ERA (139.1IP, 57ER). He also made two postseason starts for Scranton/WB, going 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA, allowing just three earned runs in 14.0 IP and striking out 10 batters. Originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on July 15, 2004, Nova was selected by San Diego in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft before being returned to the Yankees.

Sanchez, 25, was acquired by the Yankees on May 16, 2009, from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Eric Hacker. He spent the year at the Triple-A level, combining to go 6-5 with a 4.09 ERA (77.0 IP, 35 ER) and 79 strikeouts in 29 games (13 starts) with Indianapolis (PIT) and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (NYY). Sanchez was originally signed by the Dodgers as a non-drafted free agent on March 8, 2002, out of Lara, Venezuela.

Corona, 23, combined to bat .257 (120-for-467) with 69 runs, 28 doubles, six home runs, 40 RBI and 16 stolen bases in 129 games with Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, earning midseason All-Star honors with Trenton. The Caracas, Venezuela, native was originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on July 2, 2003. A switch-hitting infielder, he was selected by Seattle in the 2008 Rule 5 Draft, and was returned to the Yankees on April 3, 2009.

Nunez, 22, batted .322 (160-for-497) with nine home runs, 55 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 123 games with Double-A Trenton in 2009, making 120 starts at shortstop. In his first season at the Double-A level, he ranked second in the Eastern League in hits and third in batting average, and was the lone Thunder player to earn both midseason and postseason All-Star honors. Originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on February 25, 2004, Nunez was a non-roster spring training invitee in 2009.

Russo, 25, was named to the International League’s 2009 postseason All-Star team after batting .326 (115-for-353) with 51 runs, 18 doubles, five home runs, 31 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 90 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He also walked 42 times, ranking fourth in the IL with a team-high .397 on-base percentage. Russo was selected by the Yankees in the 20th round of the 2006 First-Year Player Draft.

Jackson, 22, was selected as the 2009 International League “Rookie of the Year” after batting .300 (151-for-504) with 67 runs, 23 doubles, nine triples, four home runs, 65 RBI and 24 stolen bases in 132 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In his first full season at the Triple-A level, he led the IL in triples and ranked second in hits. Originally selected by the Yankees in the eighth round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft, Jackson entered 2009 rated as the organization’s top prospect as well as its “Best Athlete” and “Best Defensive Outfielder” by Baseball America. He attended 2009 spring training as a non-roster invitee, batting .333 (12-for-36) with three home runs in 23 games.

In addition, infielder/outfielder Shelley Duncan was outrighted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The Yankees’ roster now stands at 39.

Just because a player is added to the 40-man roster doesn’t mean that they are the top prospects the team has. Typically players are added so other teams cannot take them in the Rule 5 draft. With the departure of Duncan the team actually has 39 players on the 40-man roster so they have room to work with if they need or they could add another prospect.

Mike Ashmore of the Hunterdon County Democrat wrote a good article on some of the guys who were not protected and are at risk of being taken in the draft. Remember though, just because a player is taken doesn’t mean he’s gone for good. A team would have to keep any player they take on their major league roster the entire season.

Of all the people not protected Humberto Sanchez seems interesting to me. Many expected him to be in the majors by this point, but injuries have certainly derailed what once looked like a promising team. I’d almost expect a team desperate for bullpen help could select him just to see if he’s healthy.

Read this for the and eligibility rules of the Rule 5 Draft.